Let's talk seriously about delegate margins and Calvinball

I understand that many posters here are very excited about Hillary Clinton's win in Pennsylvania, and rightfully so.  While expected by everyone who knows anything about primaries, including Obama and Clinton, it was an excellent opportunity for Clinton to scrounge up some donations, which is good, because she needs to be competative in both Indiana and North Carolina as well as pay off all the small vendors and her employee's health benefits that she's been delaying on (I know I have trouble paying bills on time, too).

Just to put things into perspective, however: Last night was a solid, but not spectacular, win for Hillary Clinton.  You need to look at it from a historical perspective with regards to the season and you'll see that it's a middle-of-the-road win and mostly notable for simply being the first primary challenge in a month and a half.

You may say, "But Drac, 9% is a huge margin!"  Well, in a general election, it would be.  In a gubanatorial election, probably.  In a primary, however, you have a much more limited amount of time and resources to allocate to fifty-odd total races.

The percentage margin of total popular vote isn't actually too helpful when determining the success of the primaries.  I could go on about Alaska's 35% spread for Obama or (my personal favorite) Wisconsin's hotly contested Obama+17% spread, or even Clinton's home-state 44% Arkansas beatdown, but quite frankly, these numbers, taken out of context from the primary challenge to get delegates, don't mean a lot.  

No, don't give me that.  The job of the candidates, as set up in the beginning of the season, is to earn delegates who will vote for them at the national convention.  Nobody sat them down before the season began and told them that they were also being rated on form, posture, and style.  They were told to win delegates, pledged and super.  Clinton started off with a huge advantage, mostly from her home states and favors called in from being in the Democratic establishment for over two decades.

In view of this race for delegates, I'm going to list for you the delegate margins from each race to date (this doesn't include the Democrats abroad).

Obama netted the following numbers of delegates from these races:

Alaska: 5
Colorado: 15
Connecticut: 4
Delaware: 3
Washington DC: 9
Georgia: 33
Hawaii: 8 (home state)
Idaho: 12
Illinois: 55 (home state)
Iowa: 11 (heavy early campaigning)
Kansas: 14
Louisiana: 12
Maine: 6
Maryland: 14
Minnesota: 24
Mississippi: 7
Nebraska: 8
Nevada: 1 (Clinton won popular vote)
North Dakota: 3
South Carolina: 13
Texas: 5 (Clinton won popular vote)
Utah: 5
Vermont: 3
Virginia: 25
Washington: 26
Wisconsin: 10
Wyoming: 2

Clinton netted the following numbers of delegeates from these races:

Arizona: 6
Arkansas: 19 (home state)
California: 38 (early voting)
Massachusetts: 17
New Jersey: 11
New Mexico: 2
New York: 46 (home state)
Ohio: 7
Oklahoma: 10
Pennsylvania: estimated 9-12 (home state)
Rhode Island: 5
Tennessee: 12

The following races were delegate ties:

New Hampshire
Missouri
Michigan (disqualified)
Florida (disqualified)

As you can see, Clinton got about the same number of delegates from Tennessee, New Jersey, and Oklahoma, and more from California, New York, Arkanasas, and Massachusetts.  From the delegate tracker's perspective, this was simply a middle-of-the road win for her, unremarkable except for the timing and how heated the exchanges during it became.

By contrast, Obama got about the same number from Louisiana, Wisconsin, and Washington DC while picking up demonstrably more from such luminary states as Colorado, Georgia, Kansas, Maryland, Minnesota, South Carolina, Virginia, and Washington... and that's not counting his home state advantage.

You can see, thus, how we Obama supporters can be scratching our heads at all this talk of "changing the game," when we thought that we'd been playing the right game all along.  If the contests were all about the popular vote, we probably should've gotten rid of caucuses first.  If they were about winning big states, then a little forwarning would have been nice so that Obama would know to adjust his campaign strategy accordingly.

Obama has been playing the delegate game, and well, all along.  He got twice the delegate benefit from Minnesota that Clinton is getting from Pennsylvania because he knew which districts in both states to hit for the most delegates and that keeping it close in the big states that he couldn't possibly win against a powerful establishment Democrat would make his smaller state victories mean just as much.

All the talk about changing the rules, from including disqualified states to using the Republican method to popular votes to somehow convince intelligent party insiders that somehow there's a better way of choosing the nominee than the fun little popularity game that people like them set up in the firs place smacks of Calvinball, where the rules are just made up at a whim so that a predetermined result is obtained (i.e. Calvin winning).  Please tell me that the point of going through all these contests was just to crown the person making the new rules the nominee.  I have higher hopes in Democrats than that.

I'm certain that Clinton has a fine case for the nomination without constantly trying to change the rules every time it suits her.  Her own merits are considerable.  Why make all Democrats look flighty by pushing all these ridiculous metrics?


Poll
Should we have known that the Democratic primary was actually Calvinball in advance?
Yes. If we'd known, we'd have brought suspenders and tennis rackets.
No. It's Wednesday, you don't get to know the rules.
I prefer the Spaceman Spiff ones.

Votes: 11
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


Re: Let's talk seriously about delegate margins an (2.00 / 1)

actually now, the most she can get out of PA is 10, CD 7 flipped I think it was

now she can do 7-10, 10 being the best she can do if a district goes 5-1 in her favor. its over at daily kos if you want to know which


Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee
by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 04:57:32 PM EST

Thanks (2.00 / 1)

I'll wait for the total to shake out before I correct it.  I want to give her benefit of the doubt on this one; it was a significant win in the overall narrative, no matter what I tell you above.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:05:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thanks (2.00 / 1)

narrative yes, otherwise nope

Obama is now 64 supes away from getting 2,024 after PR votes


Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee
by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:09:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's talk seriously about delegate margins an (2.00 / 1)

It WAS a significant win, but if I was a Clinton supporter I would be pissed at her campaign for not competing harder weeks ago. As it is, the matter is rather simple.


Senator Obama will be formally nominated on August 28, 2008 - the 45th Anniversary of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech."
by brimur on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:10:13 PM EST

The best thing for Clinton (2.00 / 1)

coming out of PA is the infusion of cash, which she needed.
Maybee it'll even move her campaign back into the black.

Because I wont trade humanity for patriotism!
by Drewid on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:10:32 PM EST

Re: The best thing for Clinton (none / 0)

Unfortunately for HRC, she's being bled dry like to Soviet Union. In this arms race, she cannot compete.

On the bright side, McCain will also be bled dry once the GE campaign starts!


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:24:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not only that... (none / 0)

But McCain can't even make more money and may be litigated some more over his impropriety.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:28:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not only that... (none / 0)

I don't count on the FEC to do anything. Nor do I count on the courts. The federal court system has been packed with GOP pawns.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:33:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hmm (none / 0)

Maybe we can get the Bush appointee who ruled against the Dover creationists.  He was pretty cool.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:35:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmm (none / 0)

It's luck of the draw even if you filed in PA unfortunately:) I don't think the DNC filed in PA though.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:37:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Dang (none / 0)

Ah well.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:43:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No (none / 0)

I believe we the people will need to outraise the GOP and crush them on our own. The structural deficiencies in the government prevent us on relying on it. In fact, it will likely try to work against us.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:48:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You have a good point. (none / 0)

We need to take it into our own hands.  This is the first time I've ever donated money to politicians.  It always seemed pointless before.

Now?  Not so much.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:50:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You have a good point. (none / 0)

I donated to a HS classmate running for Congress in 2006 but that was the first time. There does seem to be more of a point this time.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 06:25:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I hope so (none / 0)

I desperately want both Democrats to be profitable exercises.  Clinton needs to be able to actively fundraise, because she can funnel money into the party funds and the downticket races.

I know she will, too...


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:36:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's talk seriously about delegate margins an (none / 0)

Something to chew on.  Illinois is the same size as Pennsylvania.  Obama netted 55 delegates in the former, Clinton gets 10 in the latter.

Pennsylvania was not a landslide.


by Skaje on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:26:20 PM EST

I didn't think it was polite (none / 0)

Some states are more "home state" than others.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:30:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let's talk seriously about delegate margins an (none / 0)

if anyone is not at 2 diaries already

Obama gets another super today
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/23/ 172257/704/437/501963

magic number is now 63 supers


Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee
by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:38:27 PM EST

I'm not too concerned about supers (none / 0)

Clinton is going to push this as long as she can regardless of what the supers do, because supers can change their minds even up to the convention floor.

I do think that it will be effectively over, and she won't have a lot of success changing their minds, but there might be a Huckabee moment.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:42:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm not too concerned about supers (none / 0)

once obama is at 2,024 it will be hard for her to argue
"well we should take it to a bitter floor fight so  I can try and take some of those"

the minute he hits 2,024 this is done. espeically since if he gets the 63 before PR

then going into PR it will be all about how obama hits 2,024 after the results come in, almost impossible to flip supers AFTER someone has basically already won.

try explaining that to voters, well yes we said 2,024 was needed for the nomination and yes Obama has it, but we have decided to give the nomination to hillary.

IT WOULD NEVER HAPPEN.


Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee
by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:48:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You retain a good point... (none / 0)

But I refuse to believe that anything about this election is going to be normal or completely predictable.

I would have never have predicted either Obama's success or Clinton's tenaciousness.  Nor had I a clue as to just how ridiculous McCain is going to look with all his flip-flopping.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:53:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You retain a good point... (none / 0)

heh yeah no matter what, this election year is in the history books.

but yeah it would never happen, at least if it did I am done with the party, its one thing to do all you can before, but I see 2,024 as the ULTIMATE goal post, if someone hits it and THEN you move the goal posts I am done.

I could see after PR on the way to the convention, but if Obama hits 2,024 once the results of PR come in, Hillary drops out that night.

63 supes, we have untill June 3rd to move 63 supers (that or Obama could net more then 49% of the delegates in NC, Montana, Oregon, and SD, that would lower the SD number by 1 for each delegate he gets over 49%)


Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee
by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:57:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You retain a good point... (none / 0)

to clarify the 63 more superdelegates is assuming Obama gets only 56 of 115 delegates from NC.

each delegate OVER 56 will lower the number of needed supers by 1.

man I can't wait for NC!


Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee
by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 05:59:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's not good to get expectations up... (none / 0)

But it could be, with blowouts in Indiana and North Carolina, pretty much done by May 6.

If he gets large wins both places (65% or so), he could hit the magic number of pledged delegates, 1627, which might trigger a super surge.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 06:06:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's not good to get expectations up... (none / 0)

lol I am saying Obama would only get 49% of the delegates in NC, meaning he loses NC, and you are saying getting expectations up :-P

I think only giving Obama 49% of the remaining pledged delegates is about right, don't you?

I don't think I am getting expectations up its a fact. Obama will hit 2,024 after PR votes if he gets only 63 more supes. will he get 63 I dunno I am hoping but each super endorsement gets us 1 closer!


Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee
by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 06:09:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

After getting yelled at over 2% today... (none / 0)

I think I should retire from the prediction game.  2% apparently means a lot when you're rounding off before multiplying by the root of pi.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 06:15:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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