THE MATH: First to 1628 Pledged will be the nominee

(please note, corrected numbers) Okay, a little envelope math.

Pledged delegates: 3251
Superdelegates: 793

Total delegates: 4047
Total needed to be the nominee: 2024

Obama's pledged total: 1414
Clinton's pledged total: 1243

(numbers taken from CNN)

All that is straightforward, we know all that.  But the significant thing here is that the superdelegates who are remaining neutral are looking for a good reason to endorse one candidate over another; they don't want to risk their own political careers by going against the leader as assigned by the people.  We all know how Democrats feel about that.

Right now it does look like Obama is the leader, but let's look at this from a superdelegate's point of view:  Clinton has some strong arguments, and some dire warnings about Obama.  Further, nobody wants to anger the Clintons, who are two of the most powerful people in politics today, and gave many of them their jobs.

What's more, many superdelegates don't believe in the concept of, well, themselves; the entire concept, like caucuses and smoke-filled rooms, seems un-democratic.

Therefore, I believe that the number that nobody's really talking about is 1628, which is the number of pledged delegates necessary to take the majority of the delegates assigned only by the voters via the rules emplaced by the DNC and the states.  Once either Clinton or Obama reaches that threshold, it will only take 396 more delegates, super or otherwise, to reach the magic number.  With the number of outstanding superdelegates, that number can be reached very easily: 184 for Obama and 153 for Clinton out of the currently unaffiliated 338.

What does this mean for each candidate?

Obama will need 214 more pledged delegates.
Clinton will need 385 more pledged delegates.

When will this happen?

There are 158 delegates at stake in Pennsylvania on 4/22.
There are 4 delegates at stake in Guam on 5/3.
There are 115 delegates at stake in North Carolina and 72 delegates at stake in Indiana on 5/6.

At this point, Obama may have reached 1628, if he's garnered 61% of the total delegates from all four of these contests.  Chances are, unless Clinton's campaign completely melts down due to lack of funds or another issue, he won't get this many quite yet.  Clinton cannot win at this point, even if she won all the delegates.

Moving on:

There are 28 delegates at stake in West Virginia on 5/13.
There are 52 delegates at stake in Oregon and 51 delegates at stake in Kentucky on 5/20.

At this point, the only way for Clinton to have won the most pledged delegates is for her to have won 80% of all preceeding states since April 22.  Conversely, Obama, after the 5/20 contests, only needs to have won 44% of the delegates.  

Based on historical precident, there is very little chance that Obama will not get more than 44% of the pledged delegates between April 22 and May 20; he's currently polling at about 43% in Pennsylvania, one of his hardest states, with weeks yet to campaign.  For him to fail so drastically would be an extreme shift in all trends, and would almost have to necessesitate a 1988 Gary Hart-level scandal.

I believe that, unless something happens before, this contest will be decided by 5/20.  After Oregon and Kentucky, if Obama hasn't garnered enough pledged delegates to reach the magic number minus supers, it will essentially be a vote of no confidence in Obama, and Clinton will likely be the nominee.  If Obama does garner the needed delegates, the superdelegates will get jittery about the Republicans getting a free ride and throw their weight behind Obama just to give him more time to heal the party and get everyone ready for the big showdown in the fall.

Howard Dean said recently that he needed three months to get the majority of his supporters behind John Kerry in 2004, and that seems like a good starting estimate, though we all know that the disappointment and resentment is pretty deep in some segments of both Obama and Clinton's supporters.  Three months to the convention, and then it's off to the races in the general, by which point, hopefully we've got a powerful bloc of Democrats, independants, and disaffected Republicans behind our nominee.


Poll
Do you think that the first to 1628 is a plausable scenario?
Yes
No
Math is hard

Votes: 34
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (2.00 / 2)

No, because you leave out FL and MI and I will not accept any outcome without the say of FL and MI. Call me a Democrat.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:13:08 PM EST

Well I'm a Democrat Too (1.50 / 2)

And in fact I'm a Democrat FROM Michigan. We had a chance to fix this and we screwed it up. I too wish we had a voice in the process, but they cannot legitimately seat our current slate, and it's too late for us to hold a followup contest (unless it was a party funded contest which doesn't appear likely to happen). Like I said I'm as pro-democracy as anybody but this is Michigan's mess to clean up and we have made zero effort to do so.
by TooFolkGR on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:19:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well I'm a Democrat Too (2.00 / 3)

Actually you can. Obama knowingly took his name of the ballot. Obama knowingly did not take part in the MI primary. You cannot be awarded for something you did not take part in. It's like a lottery ticket. Five people decide to chip in on a ticket. One backs down. The four remaining wins $1 million and the fifth person who did not chip in, wants a piece of the pie.

I was all for a revote. But, now that is out of the picture, it is time to respect the voice of the people and the voice of Obama who said he wants no part of the MI primary by taking his name off the ballot.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:35:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This isn't about MI and FL (1.00 / 1)

Kindly take the talk of states with no delegates to another thread.  This thread is about the current math as laid out by the DNC.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:37:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This isn't about MI and FL (2.00 / 2)

Actually, the discussion of MI and FL is integral to his diary as Dean himself said they will be counted, yet the diarist completely ignores it.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:56:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I am the diarist (none / 0)

Dean has said that they'll be seated, not that they'll have any relevance in determining the nominee.

I'm talking about activity of the superdelegates long before that becomes an issue.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:34:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I am the diarist (2.00 / 1)

Nice. So we seat them, give them half a vote, but they have no power.

You are a joke.

Come on, you can some up with something better than that.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:39:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In that case... (1.00 / 1)

That was the solution that Clinton was offering before the primaries began.  So... she was a joke, too, until she started losing and changed her mind?

Regardless, this is neither here nor there with regards to this diary.  Like it or leave it, your call.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:49:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: In that case... (2.00 / 2)

What makes you think I approved Clinton's part in agreeing to the MI and FL plan? I have a mind of my own you know. You people can't seem to understand that.

It is very important to your diary. You are telling me FL and MI should have NO say. What person says 2 million people does not matter? It is insanity to hear that from a Democrat.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:55:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Florida and Michigan said it (1.00 / 1)

It's not me.  They did it to themselves.  They played chicken with the Mack truck known as the DNC and the DNC won.

I'm all in favor of them counting if they could find a fair way to do it.  They haven't.  I can't warp reality to my whim, I can just post a diary that will explain the math how it currently is.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:03:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Like he said already... (1.00 / 1)

Hillary said it until she flip-flopped. Why do you support her then?


by eraske on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:09:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This isn't about MI and FL (2.00 / 2)

The DNC has committed to seating MI and FL delegates.

More importantly, the DNC rules do not say anywhere that the winner is determined by who has the majority of pledged delegates.

That is a rule suggested by the Obama campaign because it suits their self interest, but it is nonetheless fictional.


by bobbank on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:28:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, I know (none / 0)

A) MI & FL will be seated, but won't have relevance until the convention.

B) I'm talking about what the superdelegates will do when someone hits 1628, not the standards for victory as listed.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:39:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, I know (2.00 / 2)

Well both (a) and (b) are supposition on your part.  So, we disagree.


by bobbank on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:52:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So, by your logic.... (none / 0)

an election where no one competed, and/or no opposition was voiced is a fair election?

I guess you loved the ones in the good old USSR.


by IowaMike on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:36:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So, by your logic.... (1.33 / 3)

I see you have some issue considering your responses to my comments. Take some time. I'm patient with the ignorant.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:41:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So, by your logic.... (none / 0)

I see, instead of showing where someone who disagrees with you are wrong, therefore proving how smart you are, you just prove you have a smart backside...


by IowaMike on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:57:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So, by your logic.... (none / 0)

George Washington certainly had not problem taking the office of the Presidency with no opposition.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:44:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So, by your logic.... (2.00 / 1)

if you can compare that to MI and FL, reason will never work for you. Please.


by IowaMike on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:58:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Dishonest phrasing. (1.00 / 2)

"Obama knowingly took his name of the ballot."

As did all the others.  Senator Clinton was the only duplicitous one.


by McNasty on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:13:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dishonest phrasing. (2.00 / 2)

duplicitous? what a f'ing joke. cultish joke. she respected the right of MI to exert what they rightly judged their right. obama and the others simply were pandering to IA and NH. he played a purely political poker game - he was way behind in the primary polls in MI, and dissing MI was potentially going to help him take IA. Clinton showed courage letting the MI people have their say, and risking taking a hit in IA.

duplicitous?? Obama - old style politics, and now whining like a baby about his CHOICE


by swissffun on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:26:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dishonest phrasing. (none / 0)

McNasty:  Not "all the other" candidates took their name off the Michigan ballot.  Clinton, Dodd, Kucinich, and Gravel were on the ballot.


by cameoanne on Fri Apr 04, 2008 at 11:01:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Uprated. (2.00 / 2)

Why, AnyDem2008, did you HR this???


Grumpy, reluctant, sore-losing, unhappy, irritable Hillary supporter for Barack Obama 2008
by DemAC on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 05:32:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (none / 0)

"Call me a Democrat."

I will if you agree to vote for the Democrat in Nov.  Even if logistical problems keep FL/MI from having an official vote.


by DreamsOfABlueNation on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:19:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (2.00 / 2)

Being a Democrat does not mean you have to vote for a Democrat on every single ballot. It means protecting the rights of the people and exercising your right as a citizen in good judgment and conscience by voting for the person you believe is the best candidate to be the President of the United States. People who vote straight Democrat or straight Republican WITHOUT THINKING, are not doing their job as responsible citizens.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:28:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (none / 0)

So THINK about it.

A vote for McCain is a vote for:

100 years of war in Iraq
trickle down economics
anti-choice policies and justices
injustice for minorities and homosexuals
no progress on global warming
etc.

A vote for Obama is the opposite of all these things.  Are you saying that you would not vote for him BECAUSE of the FL/MI situation?  Or would you never have voted for him anyway?  If the former, you should know that Obama was not the person that stopped the delegates from counting-- that was the state parties and legislatures and the DNC.  If the latter, than I remain convinced you are not a real Democrat.  Say what you will about Obama as a person, his policies will be infinitely more beneficial to our country and the Democratic cause than will McCain's.  


by DreamsOfABlueNation on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:38:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (2.00 / 1)

Actually, FL and MI have nothing to do with my opinion of Barack Obama. He has a lot of convincing to do. I'm not going to vote for someone who I don't "know."

If you want to say I'm not a real Democrat, fine by me. At least I know a REAL Democrat votes his or her conscience and does not rely on the bullying of others.

I'm not going to discuss John McCain's policies here. I'll say one thing about Iraq. John McCain ain't living to be 171 years old. Having said that, I look forward to what affect his comments will have on the campaign.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:55:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (none / 0)

No bullying just facts.  Vote your conscience if you want but if your conscience tells you that endless war and anti-choice justices are good for America, than you ain't no Jimminy Cricket and you ain't no Democrat.


by DreamsOfABlueNation on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:05:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (2.00 / 1)

See, you are bullying. You're just too blinded to see it.

I just find it funny you are telling me I'm not Democrat because I could think and make my own judgments. That is laughable.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:19:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (1.00 / 1)

McCain is in favor of the war and is anti-choice.

These are against Democratic ideals.

Democrats vote for the candidate that will further Democratic ideals.

Therefore you are not a Democrat.

These are facts.  You can call it bullying if you want but you should NOT call yourself a Democrat--you are not one.


by DreamsOfABlueNation on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:23:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (2.00 / 1)

Democrats vote for the person who is BEST for this country as we are the Party of the People.

By your definition, we will not have a Democratic Party has one third of Democrats think like me. Is this the Big Tent Party, or is it closed for the elite and liberal?


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:36:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (none / 0)

And as I have explained, Obama--because of his policies-- is better for this country than McCain.  If it is experience that matters to you than you should vote McCain even if Hillary is the nominee.  But as we can see from the policies eminating from McCain's campaign, experience does not always equate to greater wisdom.


by DreamsOfABlueNation on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:45:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (2.00 / 2)

Are you God, how do you know what is best for this country? Have you seen the future?

What is best for this country is a matter of opinion. You can't seem to understand that and then tell me I'm not a Democrat. It really makes me wonder.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:52:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (none / 0)

I'm not God but I do listen to McCain speak and I can predict the future of a McCain presidency fairly accurately from his comments.  Looking into my crystal ball I see at least 4 (if not 100) years in Iraq, a Supreme Court packed with Scalias, a world where homosexuals will need to fear government persecution, and a world where the rich get richer while the middle class struggles to hang on.  Sounds like a crummy place to me.  You have the right to disagree, but if you do then you are not committed to Democratic values and are therefore not a Democrat.


by DreamsOfABlueNation on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:05:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (1.00 / 1)

You said "a REAL Democrat votes his or her conscience and does not rely on the bullying of others".  So what you are saying is Hillary has no conscience because after all she did vote for the war. So she either voted her conscience or was bullied. Either way by your saying she's not a "real" democrat.


by lion king on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:16:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (2.00 / 1)

What?

Boy, talk about not understanding what I said.

Nice try to attack her though. You failed.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:21:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (2.00 / 2)

Then you're not a Democrat, you're an Independent. Supporting DEMOCRACY means you count every single vote, but taking on the Democrat partisanship moniker does imply voting for your party, for the sake of the party. I personally ascribe to your philosophy that voting straight one party is irresponsible, but I'm an Independent who lean Democrat. What would be irresponsible for us to do this year, as citizens, would be to vote for John McCain and continue the idiocy and unconstitutionality that the Republican party has employed over the last two terms. I personally loathe Hillary Clinton, and always have, but give serious consideration to voting for her EVEN THOUGH I HAVE NEVER RESPECTED EITHER HER CHARACTER OR HER APPROACH TO POLITICS. I don't expect to change your mind about Obama, nor should you expect to change mine of Hillary, but, for the sake of the country and the liberties we all hold sacred, we should all agree to disagree with the policies of G.W. Bush and the New Republicans.


by TheSilverMonkey on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:48:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (2.00 / 2)

I'm an Independent minded Democrat. I don't go and blindly support Democrats because they have a D next to their name.

As I said, Obama has some convincing to do and until he does that, I will remain uncommitted.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:00:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So you're a... (1.00 / 1)

Liebercrat!


by eraske on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:15:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So how would supporting McCain (none / 0)

make us any better?  You believe 4 more years of Republican support the war and damn everything else gives us a better future?


by IowaMike on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:39:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So how would supporting McCain (2.00 / 1)

As I said, I'm not going to discuss the policies of John McCain here. Democrats on MyDD and Daily Kos have a tendency to get their ass wound up when someone mentions a Republican. Frankly it does not lend itself to a healthy conversation or debate. Just look at the last few posts.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:50:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So how would supporting McCain (none / 0)

you just implied that you wouldn't support our nominee if yours doesn't win. And you accuse others of getting their undies in a bind. Just take your ball and go home, Lucy.


by IowaMike on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:00:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (2.00 / 1)

Doesn't matter what you 'accept,' really.  The rules are the rules.

If that means you're going to threaten to vote for McCain - go for it.  It's gotten a little old.


by Cycloptichorn on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:19:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (none / 0)

"Threaten" to vote for John McCain? Buddy, I'm not threatening anything. My vote is my vote and I hold it dear to me. I will vote for the person BEST fit to do the job. I will vote for the person who I can TRUST to do the job. If that means voting for John McCain, so be it, but at least I would have voted in good conscience. When I walk into the voting booth, I don't care about our party, I care about this COUNTRY.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:24:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (none / 0)


"The rules are the rules."

Except, it seems fair to point out, when "the rules" aren't applied equally to everyone breaking the rules....


by aggieric on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:07:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (none / 0)

The rules are the rules.

There was a time when the rules said African-Americans had to sit at the back of the bus. It does not mean it was right.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:23:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (none / 0)


Peter Gibbons: Doesn't it bother you that you have to get up in the morning and you have to put on a bunch of pieces of flair?

Joanna: Yeah, but I'm not about to go in and start taking money from the register.

Peter Gibbons: Well, maybe you should. You know, the Nazis had pieces of flair that they made the Jews wear.


by the mollusk on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:36:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (none / 0)

Once the SDs move to Obama and Hilary concedes because it's a done deal and she's out of money anyway; then even the SDs committed to Hilary shift to Obama and Florida and Michigan can be seated with no change to the outcome.  Done.


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:18:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So we should (none / 0)

change the rules half-way through a contest?

Our we the party of the rule of law, or change the rules when we don't like them?


by IowaMike on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:34:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged (2.00 / 1)

This is silly.


by americanincanada on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:20:03 PM EST

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged (2.00 / 1)

Why?

I understand that most Clinton supporters don't want to talk about the math, but it will be that which decides the nomination; so why not?


by Cycloptichorn on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:20:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged (none / 0)

the nomination should be given to hillary by the party elders.  no one questions that.


by soros on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:29:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged (none / 0)

The only math that counts is the one that tallies up the majority of ALL delegates, super and pledged.

Why don't Obama supporters want to talk about that?


by frankly0 on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:30:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Uh, I'm talking about it here. (2.00 / 1)

This diary is about the total of pledged and superdelegates.  There's really only a 30 delegate split between the supers of Obama and Clinton.

The historical trends have been a trickle for Obama, which won't be enough in the long run if they keep coming in 1 or 2/week.

I think the supers are waiting for someone to hit 1626, then they'll back that candidate in sufficient numbers to reach 2026.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:35:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged (2.00 / 2)

I'm more then happy to do that.

Per DemConWatch, the totals - including all the delegates, pledged and super - stand at:

Obama - 1630
Clinton - 1496

Which is a lead of 134 for Obama; a not insignificant amount.  

In order to reach 2024 -

Obama still needs 394 delegates of any type.

Clinton still needs 528 delegates of any type.

Obama needs WAY less of the remaining in order to clinch.  Much less.  It's important for Clinton supporters to understand this fact.  She is much farther behind then you may think.

Clinton's lead in SD's comes ENTIRELY from DNC members; people not elected in any fashion.  Most of her lead comes from people who pledged long, long ago, most likely promised jobs and positions by the new administration.  Obama has steadily and consistently been closing the gap on her in S-D endorsements, and will pass her soon if things keep going the way they are going.

The math really just isn't in her favor, no matter how ya slice things.


by Cycloptichorn on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:41:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

novel idea: let the VOTERS decide. (2.00 / 1)

"The only math that counts is the one that tallies up the majority of ALL delegates, super and pledged.

Why don't Obama supporters want to talk about that?"

because we are naive enough to think the DEMOCRATIC VOTERS should decide, not party elders in a smoke-filled room.

why are Clinton supporters so against the winner of the ELECTIONS getting the nomination?


the time to rise has been engaged.
by catchaz on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:49:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: novel idea: let the VOTERS decide. (none / 0)

Hahahaha ... precious irony. Michigan and Florida voters might have a word or two for you.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:29:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA..... (2.00 / 1)

May be they should have set up a legal, rule abiding election...


by IowaMike on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:43:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

THE MATH? Karl? That you? (2.00 / 1)

You may use whatever math you like. I'll use this math: whoever gets the most votes from the convention roll call is the nominee.


by souvarine on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:41:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH? Karl? That you? (2.00 / 1)

The matter will be decided long before that; by May 20th, at the latest, Obama will achieve 2024 delegates.


by Cycloptichorn on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:42:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (2.00 / 2)

Please cross-post this diary at DailyKos.

1626 is the new rallying cry.


by nocore on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:23:01 PM EST

Alrighty (none / 0)

I didn't think they needed the encouragement, but I'll send it on over.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:36:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (2.00 / 2)

Firstly excellent diary. Secondly, not only are uncommitted superdelegates, Hillary's only hope, not lining up behind her, they are steadily trickling to Obama, but worse for her is that her committed superdelegates are starting to hedge their bets so they make sure they have a spot on the bandwagon.


McCain: The Past, Obama: The Future
by KathyM on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:44:44 PM EST

How Quickly Will We Get There? (2.00 / 2)

April 22.

Most likely Breakdown (10% win for Clinton),  Obama gets 79 and Clinton get 82.

Totals (With a 2/2 Split in Guam) - Obama 1493 - Clinton 1328

May 6th

North Carolina Most likely Breakdown (10% Obama win), Obama gets 64 Clinton get is 51

Indiana Most likely Breakdown (10% Clinton win) Obama get 32 Clinton get 40.

Totals - Obama 1589 Clinton 1419 + an 18-10 Clinton win in WV - gets Obama 1607 Clinton 1429.

Then on May 20th Obama only needs 20% of Oregon and Kentucky to Clinch.


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:46:14 PM EST

That was the math I was scared of (none / 0)

I hate tinkering with individual state totals because I don't know how they allocate.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:55:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That was the math I was scared of (none / 0)

Yeah, it is hard to figure out... NC and Indiana are pretty straight forward... PA heavily favors Obama in allocation


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:07:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That was the math I was scared of (none / 0)

Me too.  Apparently Pennsylvania's delegates use Texas rules: the Senate Districts are awarded proportionately to how many people voted Democratic in 2004.  Meaning Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, etc will have by far the lion's share of the delegates.

If the vote in Pennsylvania breaks down like everyone thinks it will, Obama will win a much greater share of delegates than he will the popular vote.  Call it a reverse Missouri.


by Mostly on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:20:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'd take that (none / 0)

There's only so many times the media can spin a popular vote win for Clinton that's a delegate win for Obama before they start to run out of excuses to call it what it is: an Obama win.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:40:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to 1626 Pledged will be the no (2.00 / 1)

What your equation doesn't take into account is the popular vote.

Now you may argue that this is a delegate race and I agree. But it is only a delegate race to the extent that one candidate is able to reach 2024 delegates first. That's the rule. As we all know, neither can reach that number without superdelegate help. That's why the popular vote is so important. If superdelegates are inclined to follow the "will of the people", which I assume they are, my bet is that they will side with the popular vote winner.

If the supers side with the popular vote winner, that means that the PV winner and the person with a majority of the delegates will be the same person, which to the average voter I think will look like a legitimate win.

If they side with the pledged delegate winner who isn't the popular vote winner, then there will be a discrepancy between the majority delegate winner and the popular vote winner and that will just bring up the bitterness of the 2000 election. I don't think anyone wants that.

My prediction: if Hillary wins the popular vote even when MI and FL are excluded and the caucus estimates are included, she will be the nominee.

If she wins the  popular vote only if FL is included, I think she is likely to be the nominee but it may go to the convention. If she is the popular vote winner only when MI and FL are included, this will go to the convention and who knows what will happen then.


by katrinareyes on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 02:59:14 PM EST

Alright, but... (none / 0)

I find it extremely doubtful that Obama will reach 1626 without winning the popular vote, given his current 700,000 lead.  Superdelegates are loyal party members and I somehow doubt that they'll look at disqualified states in the numbers that you're expecting.

Not saying it's impossible... just unlikely.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:03:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Alright, but... (none / 0)

I can't say that I understand exactly how delegates are allocated vis-a-vis the popular vote but here's a good article about Hillary's decent shot of winning the popular vote even when FL and MI are excluded.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/2008/04/no_really_hillary_has_a_decent .html

Not sure what the delegate count would look like based on the results in the article.


by katrinareyes on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:07:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Interesting article (none / 0)

I still don't see the supers doing away with decades of tradition in the middle of a contest just to go for the popular vote, though.  


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:48:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Supers Won't Take the Popular Vote (none / 0)

Into heavy consideration... Here is why.

A. How do you count the 1/3 of States which held caucuses.  Supers from those states will not take kindly to not be included.

B. What do you do about Michigan where there are only votes for one candidate.

C. What do you do about Puerto Rico

D. What about people who voted for other candidates early

E. What about people who did not vote in Florida because both campaigns and the DNC said it did not count.


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:10:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Supers Won't Take the Popular Vote (none / 0)

I think they will. It's a much more accurate measure of who actually voted for whom than pledged delegates.

a) There's state estimates; in fact, RealClearPolitics.com includes these in their vote totals, so it's not terribly hard.
b) Don't count it. So be it.
c) Their votes count. What do you mean what do you do about it?
d) Part of the process, that's democracy.
e) Part of the process, that's democracy. No one can know did and did not vote, but we can look at history as a guide. Turnout was not significantly up from previous Democratic primaries in Florida, but neither was it significantly down. This has also been the case in other states, so if you didn't vote for whatever reason, you didn't vote.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:34:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Supers Won't Take the Popular Vote (none / 0)

A. If you count caucus states and don't give Hillary all the Michigan votes (b) with Obama getting none she cannot catch up.

C. On Puerto Rico this will be an issue.  I think they should count, but a lot of folks don't think they should count.

E. In florida there were really important down ballot races.  I have a number of friends who did not go vote for Obama because they were told it would not count, I think the number is rather high who did not get to vote.


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:40:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Supers Won't Take the Popular Vote (none / 0)

A. What's your basis for this?


by katrinareyes on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:42:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Supers Won't Take the Popular Vote (none / 0)

just sit down and look at the math.  

A.  If PA and IN go for Clinton at 10% levels, and NC goes at 10% level for Obama... Clinton will likely pick-up around 150,000 votes into Obama's popular vote lead of 850,000 (with Wa Caucus)... she has to then make up 700,000 in the remaining states.

B.  She can pick up 270,000 in Florida if that counts... Bringing Obama's lead down to 430,000

C. It looks like she could pick up tops of 100,000 in WV and KY (giving her sizable wins at the rate of the latest polls)... So Obama is down to 330,000

D. We can call Oregon a wash, even though it will go to Obama.

E. Montana and South Dakota are like Obama states, but the most anybody could pick up there is 10,000 either way.

F. So even in a large turnout scenario in the PR (1,000,000) she would have to win by 33% to even tie.


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:59:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Supers Won't Take the Popular Vote (none / 0)

Funny thing about math, there are so many possible results depending on what your x and y variables are.

Let's say x = voter turnout and y = margin of victory.

Hillary's (x)(y) = net PV

Penn: (2.3)(.17) = 400,000
IN: (800,000)(.08)= 63,000
NC: (1.2)(-12) = -150,000
WV: (270K)(.25)= 67,000
KY: (450K)(.20)= 89,000
OR: (590K) (-0.05)= 29,000
PR: (2 mil) (.25) = 500,000
MT: (140K)(-.20) = -28,000
SD: (94K)(-.20) = -18,800

HRC Net: 65,000; with FL included 360,000  

I suggest you read this article:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/2008/04/no_really_hillary_has_a_decent .html


by katrinareyes on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:19:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Supers Won't Take the Popular Vote (none / 0)

I've read the article, it's numbers are not based on any kind of reality...the turnout numbers are way inflated... and the chance that Hillary has a 17 point win in PA is in the 2.5% range of the SD from this weeks polls.  Their Kentucky turnout number is also too high, and nobody know what will happen in the PR (plus we would have to go throw a month of hearing the PR will determine the Democratic nominee)


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:23:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Supers Won't Take the Popular Vote (none / 0)

What's your basis for saying that those TO numbers are inflated? They're based on trends from previous primaries where TO was 80 percent of Kerry's votes in the GE. I suspect that PA will have a TO of 80% of the Kerry vote even if it is a closed primary simply because there's so much excitement right now (and proof of that is in the high number of new registrants).

You seem to be very sure of everything you write...I'm not saying my prediction will come true (because really, it's impossible to accurately predict TO models), all I'm saying is that Hillary has a reasonable chance of winning the PV.


by katrinareyes on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:32:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Supers Won't Take the Popular Vote (none / 0)

In PA you can get close...because it is only registered Dems who can vote.  There are 4,000,000 Reg. D's... in Ohio (and in most states save Florida and Miss) we've seen turnout hover around 50% (A large jump from the previous averages below 30%)... So, I think 2,000,000 is a good number.  I'm doubtful 60% is realistic, which would be the 2,400,000 number.


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 05:09:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Supers Won't Take the Popular Vote (none / 0)

a) Why do you say that? Mathematically, sure she can. It's all about margins.

c) Who is saying they shouldn't count?

e) There's a difference between "didn't get to vote" and "didn't get to count". If your friends didn't vote for Obama and thus cost some down-ballot races, then that's their fault. Regardless of Obama-Clinton, no one was under any impression that those down-ballot races wouldn't count.

I just have a huge problem with people arguing that 'oh we just don't know exactly who would have voted'. That's the problem with elections in general! If we could know for sure, why even bother to vote. Everyone has their reasons for voting or not voting, period.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:46:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Supers Won't Take the Popular Vote (none / 0)

A. There are caucus estimates available. Assuming the PV lead is greater than 100,000, I think that would be a solid PV win.

B. Personally, I think a revote is the best solution for all parties. Barring that, I stand by my prediction, if Hillary wins the PV without FL and MI, she's the nominee. If she wins the PV only with FL included, she's still the likely nominee. If she wins the PV only when FL and MI are included, it becomes dicey and will likely go to the convention.

C. What do you mean, what do you do about PR? Rules say that PR is part of the Democratic nomination process, of course you have to take their vote into account. Otherwise, why have them vote?

D. What do you mean?

E. There was record turnout in FL. I think the 1.7 million people who voted would argue they believed their vote meant something.


by katrinareyes on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:40:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to (none / 0)

If superdelegates hand the nomination to Obama in contravention to the will of the people (as in the VOTERS, and that means ALL the voters), the Democratic Party will have lost its right to use its name.


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:19:33 PM EST

Yes (none / 0)

What I'm saying is that the supers are probably waiting until 1628 pledged delegates (I had the math slightly wrong), which represents the majority of delegates as chosen by the voters.

This system weighs the voters as the most important factor.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:44:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes (none / 0)

I think this is a pretty arbitrary number being pushed by those wanting Clinton out and again another attempt to shut down the process before it's over. Seriously, there's not a huge difference between May 6th, May 20th, and June 4th.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:48:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm not attempting anything (none / 0)

I'm predicting that the supers will end it by 5/20.

Listen, Clinton wanted this over on 2/5.  Nobody would be crying about hearing from every state if she'd landed a knockout blow with her 160-some legacy superdelegates and a strong Super Tuesday showing.

Most years, most states aren't counted.  We've been blessed this year, but that doesn't change the fact that the party wants to get things rolling against McCain.

It's not an arbitrary number, it's the pledged delegate count in a game where the super delegates aren't too keen on being spoilers.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:11:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes (2.00 / 1)

I disagree that pledged delegates is the best indicator of voter preference for three reasons:

1. Texas (and Washington State)

In Texas, where Hillary won the PV by over 100,000 votes, she lost the delegate count. Intuitively, that doesn't seem right.

2. Districts with higher voter turnout in 2004 were given more delegates.

So in Texas, in heavily populated Latino districts where Hillary was strong and won overwhelmingly, she didn't get as many delegates as Obama did in heavily  populated African American districts where he was strong and a higher voter TO in 2004.

3. Gerrymandering

Both candidates have benefited from gerrymandered districts, doesn't mean it's fair or reflective of voter preference.


by katrinareyes on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:54:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Regardless (none / 0)

They won't overthrow decades of tradition just because it's not entirely democratic.  

What you're listing are reasons for primary reform, not for messing with the current election.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:16:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Regardless (none / 0)

How is it going against decades of tradition if superdelegates follow the will of the popular vote?
Correct me if I wrong, but I don't think there's ever been a nominee who has not won the popular vote. So if anything, if supers side with the pledged delegate leader who is not the popular vote winner, then they're in effect "overthrowing decades of tradition" are they not?

My argument is that the PV is a better indicator of popular will.


by katrinareyes on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:25:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The play's the thing (none / 0)

The tradition is not with the popular vote; that's just a side effect.  The tradition is that the delegates are what matters.

Everyone agreed to rules beforehand; I could see the popular vote being a minor factor, but I don't see that as the key, especially when so many other factors are involved, and none of them would be in that hypothetical candidate's corner.

Honestly, I don't think that we should be talking about the popular vote when Obama has that, too.  The numbers don't look like they're going to change drastically in terms of proportions in the upcoming races.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:46:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to (none / 0)

Would you say the same if the Super delegates handed the nomination to Clinton over the voter's will?


by DreamsOfABlueNation on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:49:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THE MATH: First to (none / 0)

Yes.  


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 05:40:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Two questions? (none / 0)

If Obama does win the popular vote, and has more pledged delegates, will you support our nominee?

And, is trying to change the rules half way through a contest because you are loosing unfair?


by IowaMike on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:33:02 PM EST

Re: Two questions? (none / 0)

If Obama wins the popular vote and has more pledged delegates on June 4 by all means I will support him.

If changing rules means counting votes, then yes, let's change some rules! We are a democracy, aren't we?


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:35:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Two questions? (none / 0)

Great, let's have a CA primary re-do.  I heard there were lots of people who didn't have a chance to vote the first time.  While we're at it, maybe we should have Florida vote in the 2000 general election again.  Or, at the very least, New Hampshire.


by the mollusk on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:40:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Two questions? (none / 0)

Sorry, I don't have a time machine.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:43:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Two questions? (none / 0)

I got one with my IPod.  Special offer.


by the mollusk on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:47:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Two questions? (none / 0)

Mine just came with a crappy pair of white headphones ...


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:49:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Too Bad.... (none / 0)

you might have stopped FL and MI from creating this travesty.

But they did.


by IowaMike on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:54:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Too Bad.... (none / 0)

How exactly did Florida Democrats create this travesty? Oh, you mean, the Republican legislature pushed a bill that the Republican governor signed ... got it ...


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:11:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah, really (none / 0)

All that effort that they put in to stop it, too.

Er, wait, they didn't do anything.  They wanted it just as much as the Republicans.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:17:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, really (none / 0)

they were warned, and told what would happen.


by IowaMike on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:19:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A Democracy only works with the rule of law... (none / 0)

and elections that follow the rules, are truly contested, and include everyone's name.

Florida and Michigan choose to create undemocratic elections (Not following the rules). And remember, it is many a repug in those state legislatures that have been blocking revote efforts as well to cause our problems.

They made their bed, now unfortunately they have to lie in it.

You can't change rules half-way through a contest just because you are loosing. That is more unfair.


by IowaMike on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 03:50:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Democracy only works with the rule of law... (none / 0)

FDR said, "rules are not necessarily sacred, principles are." I can't think of more sacred principles in a democracy than allowing people to vote and having their votes count.

I think the best solution would have been a re-vote in both MI and Fl. And I think if both candidates supported such revotes, those revotes would happen.

What I don't understand is why the Obama campaign is reluctant to have a re-vote. They have the money advantage, Obama has a good chance of winning Michigan, and its likely that in FL, Obama would do better in a revote than he did in January.


by katrinareyes on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:05:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Democracy only works with the rule of law... (none / 0)

its repugs in their state legislatures that are putting up the blocks.

They are the ones who benefit from the controversy.


by IowaMike on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:15:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Democracy only works with the rule of law... (none / 0)

Florida ballots included everyone's name. People voted in record numbers. How exactly is this undemocratic? Undemocratic is what's going on by not seating them.

I'm confident that the Florida delegation will be seated following all the recent talk by Dean.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:13:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Democracy only works with the rule of law... (none / 0)

because their was no campaigning. If you don't understand how that doesn't make it a real election, Then you just don't get what makes an election fair.


by IowaMike on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:18:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Democracy only works with the rule of law... (none / 0)

It's as fair as both candidates campaigning as both not campaigning. It's not ideal obviously but it's a hell of a lot better than Michigan. This many people voting counts, sorry.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:26:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Democracy only works with the rule of law... (none / 0)

Then its just name recognition, not an election.

Remember, she lead everywhere until people got to know him. And you only get to know candidates by campaigning.


by IowaMike on Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 04:30:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Two questions? (none / 0)

"If changing rules means counting votes, then yes, let's change some rules! We are a democracy, aren't we?"

By that logic you would also support a change in the rules now that would eliminate su